Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7-cent spread despite nearly three years until expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7-cent spread despite nearly three years until expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome. The 6-cent price implies only a 6% probability that Buttigieg declares first among the list members, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 741.5% annualized yield, indicating significant mispricing or a highly speculative long-shot bet. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days and modest $427 open interest suggest this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to be a reliable trading vehicle.
Resolution rules
If Pete Buttigieg is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-PBUT yes 100