What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $23 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $23 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable. The 19,121% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of mispricing in thin markets—such astronomical yields are mathematically artifacts of low prices rather than genuine opportunities. With 62 days to expiration and a wide 8¢ spread, this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to trade meaningfully, and the cliff risk index of 32 suggests meaningful uncertainty around the resolution threshold of 3.5% median Fed funds rate.
Resolution rules
If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.5% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDOTPLOT-26JUN-3.5 yes 100