Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 7% price reflects an extremely low probability for a magnitude 8+ California earthquake within 2.6 years, which aligns with seismic science—such events occur roughly once per century in California.
Analysis
The 7% price reflects an extremely low probability for a magnitude 8+ California earthquake within 2.6 years, which aligns with seismic science—such events occur roughly once per century in California. The asymmetric implied yields (1,871% for Yes vs. 10.6% for No) reveal significant tail-risk pricing, with the Yes side offering exceptional compensation for the low-probability event, though the $1.37k daily volume and $85k open interest suggest limited liquidity for a market with such high potential payoff. The stable 7¢ price over seven days and tight 1¢ spread indicate this market has found equilibrium, though the 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given the binary nature of seismic events.
Resolution rules
If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-27 yes 100