Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2035. 3540 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 26.5% and 4.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	26.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	13%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

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