CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing October 14, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely specific deflationary outcome (exactly -0.2% MoM) at just 7 cents, implying a 7% probability that seems potentially mispriced given the precise resolution criteria and 178-day time horizon.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely specific deflationary outcome (exactly -0.2% MoM) at just 7 cents, implying a 7% probability that seems potentially mispriced given the precise resolution criteria and 178-day time horizon. The astronomical 2729% implied yield on the Yes side is driven by minimal liquidity—just $1 open interest with zero 24-hour volume—making this more of a theoretical pricing exercise than a tradeable market. The cliff risk index of 13 and wide 7-cent spread suggest low confidence in the pricing, and traders should be cautious that such extreme yields often reflect illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the CPI month-over-month is exactly -0.2% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECONSTATCPI-26SEP-T-0.2 yes 100