Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market prices an extremely narrow outcome—400-449 EOs out of a plausible range spanning 0-300+—at just 9¢, generating an unusually high 365% implied yield on the Yes side despite nearly four years until expiry.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow outcome—400-449 EOs out of a plausible range spanning 0-300+—at just 9¢, generating an unusually high 365% implied yield on the Yes side despite nearly four years until expiry. The illiquid position ($2,807 open interest, $0 volume in 24 hours) and wide 2¢ spread suggest thin conviction, though the 10 Cliff Risk Index flags potential resolution ambiguity around what counts as a signed order. Historical context matters here: Trump's first term saw 220 EOs while Biden is tracking toward ~330, making the 400-449 band a statistical outlier that the market correctly treats as unlikely.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 400 to 449 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-424 yes 100