Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. The 11¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in this narrow band outcome, with the implied yield on Yes positions reaching an exceptional 325.2% despite over 1,000 days to expiry—suggesting either strong skepticism about this specific range or that traders expect executive order volume to cluster outside 450-499.
Analysis
The 11¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in this narrow band outcome, with the implied yield on Yes positions reaching an exceptional 325.2% despite over 1,000 days to expiry—suggesting either strong skepticism about this specific range or that traders expect executive order volume to cluster outside 450-499. The high cliff risk index of 9 and minimal 24-hour volume of $50 against $2.2K open interest indicate thin liquidity and potential difficulty unwinding positions, while the recent price stability (9¢ to 10¢ over seven days) suggests the market has settled into a consensus bearish view on this outcome.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 450 to 499 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-474 yes 100