What is the current probability for "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 24, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 1010.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This Ethereum price market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side meaningless—it reflects a near-zero price (0¢) rather than genuine market conviction.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 8/11¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $26·OI $26·Closes Apr 24, 2026·3d remaining

KXETH-26APR2417-B2210

7-day price132 snapshots · 2 regime

9¢8¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 21

Analysis

3d ago

This Ethereum price market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side meaningless—it reflects a near-zero price (0¢) rather than genuine market conviction. The 7-day price decline from 4¢ to 2¢ and the massive 11,077% realized volatility suggest this is a thin, potentially manipulated micro-market with a 32 Cliff Risk Index indicating significant resolution uncertainty. With only 7 days to expiry and a narrow resolution band of $2,190-$2,229.99, traders should be cautious of the illiquidity and consider that the current pricing may not reflect true probability.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 2190-2229.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 1010.8%

Adj IY >100,000%

CRI 12

RV 4337%

VR 0.55

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1010.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	>100,000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4337%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.55	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.364

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:39:22 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXETH-26APR2417-B2210 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →