What is the current probability for "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 24, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 94050.4% and 1436.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with only $2 open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 5¢ spread on a 4¢ price, yet it's pricing in an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 10/14¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $26·OI $26·Closes Apr 24, 2026·3d remaining

KXETH-26APR2417-B2250

7-day price173 snapshots · 3 regime

11¢11¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with only $2 open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 5¢ spread on a 4¢ price, yet it's pricing in an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side. The realized volatility of 8,345% and cliff risk index of 19 suggest this micro-liquidity market is highly unstable and potentially mispriced, with the Yes contract's probability (4%) appearing artificially depressed given Ethereum's historical price ranges and the narrow $2,230-$2,269.99 resolution band. With only 5 days to expiry and virtually no trading activity, this market lacks sufficient depth to be a reliable price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 2230-2269.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 94050.4%

IY (No) 1436.7%

Adj IY 94050%

CRI 8

RV 6062%

VR 0.69

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	94050.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1436.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	94050%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	6062%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.364

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:39:22 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXETH-26APR2417-B2250 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →