What is the current probability for "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 24, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 85244.2% and 1585.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This Ethereum price band market on Kalshi shows extreme dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 7-day countdown, suggesting minimal trader interest in the 2270-2309.99 USD range outcome.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 11/15¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $15·OI $15·Closes Apr 24, 2026·3d remaining

KXETH-26APR2417-B2290

7-day price129 snapshots · 2 regime

12¢12¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 21

Analysis

3d ago

This Ethereum price band market on Kalshi shows extreme dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 7-day countdown, suggesting minimal trader interest in the 2270-2309.99 USD range outcome. The 0¢ price and astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side indicate the market has effectively priced this outcome as impossible, though the 5¢ spread and recent 2¢ price decline (from 6¢ to 4¢) suggest some residual skepticism about that assessment. The 4535% realized volatility and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 point to extreme uncertainty around resolution, making this an illiquid, potentially mispriced market with significant tail risk.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 2270-2309.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 85244.2%

IY (No) 1585.1%

Adj IY 85244%

CRI 7

RV 1439%

VR 0.36

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	85244.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1585.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	85244%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1439%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.36	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.364

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:39:22 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXETH-26APR2417-B2290 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →