What is the current probability for "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 24, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 359.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing anomalies typical of low-volume prediction markets, with just $9 in 24-hour volume and a 6¢ spread on an 11¢ price.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $598·OI $842·Closes Apr 24, 2026·3d remaining

KXETH-26APR2417-B2490

7-day price135 snapshots · 5 regime

7¢3¢ current

Apr 171¢Apr 21

Analysis

3d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing anomalies typical of low-volume prediction markets, with just $9 in 24-hour volume and a 6¢ spread on an 11¢ price. The implied yield of 100,000% on the Yes side is nonsensical given the 7-day timeframe and reflects the market's inability to price rationally at such thin liquidity levels. With Ethereum's realized volatility at 4,748% and the resolution band spanning only $40 (2470-2509.99), this appears to be a highly speculative micro-market where the 11¢ price likely reflects minimal genuine conviction rather than fundamental probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 2470-2509.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 359.5%

Adj IY >100,000%

CRI 32

RV 4092%

VR 0.61

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	359.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	>100,000%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4092%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.61	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.364

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:39:25 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXETH-26APR2417-B2490 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →