Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the theoretically massive 1035% implied yield on a Yes resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the theoretically massive 1035% implied yield on a Yes resolution. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the 524% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests this contract experiences sharp, unpredictable moves—likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability shifts. With 259 days until expiry and very low information arrival (0.4/h), this appears to be a thinly-traded niche market where the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus on Finland's Eurovision televote chances.
Also on polymarket at 23¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
If Finland wins the Televote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONTELEV-26-FIN yes 100