Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Who will win the Televote in Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $53 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $53 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable. The 1035% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the low price and minimal trading activity, while the 4¢ spread represents significant uncertainty. The market has declined from 12¢ to 16¢ over seven days (reversing direction), and with 259 days to expiry, there's substantial time for price discovery, though the Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests elevated execution risk given the thin liquidity.
Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
If Greece wins the Televote in Eurovision 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEUROVISIONTELEV-26-GRE yes 100