What is the current probability for "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 91.6% and 224.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows significant recent bearish pressure, with the price declining 11 cents over seven days (69¢ to 58¢), yet currently sits at 70¢—suggesting potential mean reversion or fresh buying interest.

████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

60¢

Bid/Ask 61/64¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $292.71·OI $3,915.74·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-CEN

7-day price129 snapshots · 2 regime

70¢61¢ current

Apr 841¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows significant recent bearish pressure, with the price declining 11 cents over seven days (69¢ to 58¢), yet currently sits at 70¢—suggesting potential mean reversion or fresh buying interest. The 12-cent spread combined with just $14.27 in 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity, while the extreme realized volatility of 215% and asymmetric implied yields (101.8% Yes vs. 194.1% No) point to high uncertainty about Central Cee's involvement on Drake's album. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, there's substantial time for new information, though the low info arrival rate of 0.4/h suggests the market is currently starved for concrete developments about the project.

Resolution rules

If Central Cee is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 91.6%

IY (No) 224.1%

Adj IY 224%

CRI 2

RV 549%

VR 4.81

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	91.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	224.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	224%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	549%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.81	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:33:20 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-CEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →