Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will EsDeeKid be featured on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 470.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 42% on the No side, suggesting the 44¢ price may undervalue the probability given Drake's track record of featuring emerging artists.
Analysis
The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 470.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 42% on the No side, suggesting the 44¢ price may undervalue the probability given Drake's track record of featuring emerging artists. Volume is anemic at $10.93 in 24 hours with a wide 21¢ spread, indicating low liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency on a niche outcome with 260 days to resolution. The recent downward drift from 25¢ to 23¢ combined with a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggests some uncertainty around album release timing or feature confirmation mechanics.
Resolution rules
If EsDeeKid is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-ESD yes 100