What is the current probability for "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 127.1% and 161.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Who will feature on Drake's album 'Iceman'?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility (332% realized vol) and asymmetric yields favoring the No side (158.6% vs 124.7%), suggesting significant uncertainty around whether PARTYNEXTDOOR will feature on Drake's 'Iceman' album.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 53/80¢·Spread 27¢·Vol $272.74·OI $7,973.88·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-PAR

7-day price145 snapshots · 2 regime

60¢53¢ current

Apr 831¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme volatility (332% realized vol) and asymmetric yields favoring the No side (158.6% vs 124.7%), suggesting significant uncertainty around whether PARTYNEXTDOOR will feature on Drake's 'Iceman' album. The price has declined 6 cents over seven days to 55¢, but liquidity remains thin with only $12.44 in 24-hour volume and $7.37k open interest, making the 124.7% implied yield potentially misleading given execution risk. With 260 days to expiry and a high info arrival rate of 0.8/hour, this market appears to be pricing in meaningful doubt about the collaboration despite the slight Yes lean.

Resolution rules

If PARTYNEXTDOOR is featured on Drake's album 'Iceman' before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 127.1%

IY (No) 161.6%

Adj IY 162%

CRI 1

RV 1280%

VR 8.63

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	127.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	161.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	162%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1280%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	8.63	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

27¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:33:22 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEATUREDRAKE-27-PAR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →