What is the current probability for "Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Apr 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 98¢ (98% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 29, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Apr 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1362.8% and 100000.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Apr 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This market shows extremely high conviction at 96¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the price may be stale or reflect minimal recent interest despite 13 days to expiry.

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98¢

Bid/Ask 96/98¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $555.07·OI $4,604.43·Closes Apr 29, 2026·1d remaining

KXFEDCOMBO-26APR-0-T0

7-day price14 snapshots · 12 regime

97¢96¢ current

Apr 895¢Apr 28

Analysis

11d ago

This market shows extremely high conviction at 96¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the price may be stale or reflect minimal recent interest despite 13 days to expiry. The asymmetric implied yields (120.1% for Yes vs. 69,150.6% for No) indicate the No side is severely mispriced, likely due to illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With only $3,309 open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the extreme probability may not reflect true market expectations for an April 2026 FOMC decision with zero dissents.

Resolution rules

If ALL of the following occur for Apr 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1362.8%

IY (No) >100,000%

Adj IY 48960%

CRI 24

EE 0.000

LAS 0.02

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1362.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	>100,000%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	48960%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	0.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.375

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 3:16:26 PM

SF edge 0.0¢ yes

Edges (1)

NO +0¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 3:08:35 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEDCOMBO-26APR-0-T0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →