Fed Decision in July
Leader sits at 80% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No change
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
25 bps increase
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$813K
liquid
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
40 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Fed Decision in July
Fed Decision in July?: No change
0x8bf1c1…ef86
Fed Decision in July?: 25 bps increase
0xb5c0ab…3793
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 2026 meeting. The futures market shows overwhelming confidence in no rate change at the June meeting (96% implied probability), which anchors expectations for July. The probability of a July cut sits well below the "no change" scenario (88%), suggesting markets currently expect the Fed to maintain rates steady through mid-year. The 4-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi reflects typical venue differences and relatively low liquidity in the July decrease contracts ($15,812 in 24-hour volume). Shifts in this probability would depend primarily on inflation data between now and July, employment reports, Fed communications about economic conditions, and any financial stability concerns that might prompt earlier action.
- ›June meeting is priced at 96% no-change, constraining July cut probability by establishing a baseline hold scenario
- ›July decrease contracts show minimal volume ($15,812 for 25 bps cut vs. $141,546 for no-change), indicating lower conviction and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- ›Next major economic data releases (CPI, PCE, jobs reports) through June will be primary drivers of probability repricing
- ›Fed officials' public communications and forward guidance between now and late June could shift rate-cut expectations significantly
- ›No rate increase is priced near zero (3¢), suggesting near-complete market confidence that tightening is off the table by July
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 52% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 51% · 0d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 1d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 1d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (80% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
Traders See Fed on Hold for July, but September Looms
The Fed holds steady at 66¢ for July, but the September meeting is a toss-up with a 47¢ probability of a 25bps hike. The market consensus is that the Fed will pause in the near term, but the path forward is uncertain.
Fed On Hold: 78¢ Probability of No Rate Move at July Meeting
Fed July meeting market (20¢ hike, 78¢ hold) shows overwhelming consensus for no move. Backing this, CPI YoY above 3.6% trades at 96¢, recession probability is just 10¢, and the year-end rate cut count of 0 trades at 76¢. The market is firmly in 'higher for longer' territory.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.