Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This illiquid micro-market is pricing dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting at just 7¢ with zero 24-hour volume and only $102 open interest, suggesting minimal conviction either direction.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market is pricing dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting at just 7¢ with zero 24-hour volume and only $102 open interest, suggesting minimal conviction either direction. The extreme implied yield of 49,624% on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine expected returns, while the 8¢ spread indicates wide uncertainty typical of low-liquidity venues. With 10 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 13, this market appears to be a thin tail bet with minimal trading activity rather than a meaningful probability signal.
Resolution rules
If Anna Paulson formally dissented at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDDISSENT-26APR-ANNA yes 100