Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting
Leader sits at 7% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Christopher Waller
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Beth Hammack
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$379
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Christopher Waller
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-CHRI
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Beth Hammack
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-BETH
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Jerome Powell
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-JERO
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Lorie Logan
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-LORI
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Lisa Cook
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-LISA
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Philip Jefferson
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-PHIL
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Michelle Bowman
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-MICH
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Michael Barr
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-MBAR
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: John Williams
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-JOHN
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Anna Paulson
KXFEDDISSENT-26JUN-ANNA
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one Federal Reserve official will dissent from the committee's policy decision at the April 2026 FOMC meeting. The 22% probability suggests markets assess dissent as unlikely but plausible. Dissent typically occurs when economic conditions or inflation trajectories diverge significantly from the Fed's consensus view. The key drivers are recent inflation readings and economic data—higher-than-expected inflation or growth could prompt a hawkish dissent favoring tighter policy, while weakness could trigger dovish dissent. The April 2026 FOMC meeting itself will resolve this directly when the committee votes and announces results, typically followed by detailed voting records showing any dissenters. Historical context shows dissent occurs sporadically, roughly 10-15% of the time in normal periods but more frequently during economic stress or policy divergence.
- ›April 2026 inflation data released before the FOMC meeting will determine whether officials perceive price pressures warranting policy disagreement
- ›The Fed's current policy rate trajectory heading into April 2026 constrains how much room exists for genuine disagreement among governors and regional presidents
- ›Recent FOMC dissents have been relatively rare in 2025-2026, suggesting consensus is currently stronger than historical averages
- ›The composition of voting members in April 2026 versus prior meetings affects likelihood, as different regional Fed presidents hold rotating voting seats with varying policy preferences
- ›Economic growth and employment data in March 2026 will provide the most recent conditions committee members evaluate before their April decision
What moved the line
- Jun 14Anna Paulson↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Christopher Waller↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Jerome Powell↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Lisa Cook↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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