Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (89%) that Stephen Miran will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, with the price rising 5 cents over the past week.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (89%) that Stephen Miran will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, with the price rising 5 cents over the past week. However, the extraordinarily skewed implied yields—355% for Yes versus 23,255% for No—combined with minimal liquidity ($800 open interest, $89 daily volume) and a wide 5-cent spread suggest this pricing may reflect thin trading rather than genuine consensus, warranting caution on the reliability of the 89-cent quote. With only 13 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, the market faces imminent resolution risk with limited opportunity for price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Stephen Miran formally dissented at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDDISSENT-26APR-STEP yes 100