Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad before Jun 11, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad before Jun 11, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing June 11, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 21,387% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 9¢ price is artificially depressed relative to the tail risk of match relocation.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 21,387% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 9¢ price is artificially depressed relative to the tail risk of match relocation. The 1¢ cross-venue gap to Polymarket (8¢) is modest, but combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 5¢ spread on just $16,412 open interest, liquidity is critically thin and the price may not reflect true consensus. With 55 days to expiry and a high 1,848% realized volatility, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero relocation risk despite FIFA's history of late logistical changes, making this potentially attractive for contrarian bettors willing to accept the illiquidity.
Also on polymarket at 8¢(Δ -5¢)
Resolution rules
If FIFA officially relocates at least one 2026 FIFA World Cup match from a U.S. venue to a venue outside the United States before ||date||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFIFAUSPULLGAME-26JUN11 yes 100