How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This market is pricing in a 71% probability of exactly one dissenting vote at the April 29 FOMC meeting, with just 13 days to expiry and notably thin liquidity at $4.6k open interest.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 71% probability of exactly one dissenting vote at the April 29 FOMC meeting, with just 13 days to expiry and notably thin liquidity at $4.6k open interest. The extreme yield asymmetry (1230% for Yes vs 6694% for No) reflects the binary nature of the outcome, though the 165% realized volatility and sharp 16-cent price rally over seven days suggest meaningful uncertainty remains about the final vote count. The low volume ($1.5k in 24h) and 6-cent spread indicate this is a niche market with limited depth, making it susceptible to outsized moves as the meeting approaches.
Resolution rules
If there are exactly 1 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Apr 29, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26APR-1 yes 100