How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting
Leader sits at 65% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
1
Spread
46pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 0
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUN-0
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 4
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUN-4
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 2
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUN-2
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 1
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUN-1
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 3
KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUN-3
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the next Federal Reserve meeting will produce no dissenting votes among the voting committee members. Currently priced at 64%, this suggests traders view consensus as more likely than any outcome involving dissent. Fed dissent typically emerges when members disagree on policy direction, inflation risks, or economic conditions. The current pricing likely reflects relatively stable economic expectations and broad agreement on monetary policy trajectory. Factors that could shift this include unexpected inflation data before the meeting, economic deterioration, or shifts in member rhetoric signaling concerns. The resolution will be determined by the official voting record released immediately after the next scheduled FOMC meeting, where the actual number of dissenting votes becomes public information.
- ›Current market assigns 19% probability to exactly 1 dissent and 3% to 3+ dissents, indicating baseline expectation of strong consensus
- ›Recent Fed communication patterns and economic data trends determine whether members publicly signal disagreement before voting
- ›Historical dissent frequency at recent FOMC meetings provides baseline context for whether 64% aligns with typical consensus levels
- ›Economic data releases between now and the next meeting (inflation reports, employment, GDP growth) could trigger member disagreement
- ›Scheduled FOMC meeting date and any pre-meeting member communications will clarify positioning as resolution approaches
What moved the line
- Jun 121↑6pp13→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 100↓3pp71→68¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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