Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 46¢ to 28¢, suggesting either improved confidence in Gabbard's tenure stability or a shift in market sentiment following recent developments.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 46¢ to 28¢, suggesting either improved confidence in Gabbard's tenure stability or a shift in market sentiment following recent developments. The extreme implied yield of 1,381.8% on the Yes side reflects the low absolute price and thin liquidity ($14,936 open interest), creating outsized returns for correct predictions but also elevated tail risk. With 75 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears fairly priced for a low-probability event, though the sharp downward movement warrants monitoring for any policy or political shifts that could reverse the recent bearish trend.
Resolution rules
If Tulsi Gabbard leaves as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGABBARDOUT-26-JUL01 yes 100