Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election?

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $51 open interest, making the 68¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The sharp 6-cent decline over seven days combined with a dramatically asymmetric implied yield spread (60% on No versus 13.3% on Yes) suggests the market may be mispricing tail risk, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index indicate no imminent catalyst distortion. With nearly 3.5 years until expiry and minimal trading activity, this contract appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively discovered price.

Resolution rules

If the winner of the next Georgian parliamentary election is Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade