Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing October 31, 2029. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $37 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $37 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 84.6% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 1,294-day timeframe, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market is pricing in. The recent price movement from 18¢ to 25¢ represents a 39% rally over seven days, which warrants caution given the illiquidity—this could reflect genuine information or simply thin-book volatility.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Georgian parliamentary election is Unity – National Movement, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGEORGIAPARLI-28-UNM yes 100