How many golf major championships will Scottie Scheffler win in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that How many golf major championships will Scottie Scheffler win in 2026?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing August 4, 2026. The market is pricing in a 48% probability that Scheffler wins at least one major in 2026, down 3 cents over the past week, with exceptionally high implied yields (376% on the Yes side) reflecting the binary nature and short 110-day timeframe.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 48% probability that Scheffler wins at least one major in 2026, down 3 cents over the past week, with exceptionally high implied yields (376% on the Yes side) reflecting the binary nature and short 110-day timeframe. Liquidity is thin at $9.8k open interest and only $165 in daily volume, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The tight 1-cent spread and neutral regime suggest the market has settled into an equilibrium, though the extreme yields warrant caution about whether this reflects genuine uncertainty or simply illiquidity pricing inefficiency.
Resolution rules
If Scottie Scheffler wins at least 1 golf major championship in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOLFMAJORS-SSCH26-1 yes 100