Will Betsy McCaughey be the Republican nominee for Governor in Connecticut?

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Betsy McCaughey be the Republican nominee for Governor in Connecticut?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This micro-liquidity market shows virtually no trading activity with $0 in 24-hour volume and only $17 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment.

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10¢
Bid/Ask 5/10¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $17·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining
KXGOVCTNOMR-26-BMCC
7-day price3 snapshots · 3 regime
6¢5¢ current
Apr 165¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows virtually no trading activity with $0 in 24-hour volume and only $17 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment. The extreme 1226% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity rather than genuine conviction, while the 4¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest uncertainty about McCaughey's nomination prospects over the 565-day timeframe. With over a year and a half until the 2026 Connecticut Republican primary, this market lacks sufficient depth to serve as a reliable probability estimate.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 9¢+1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 3321.9%Close-time delta 10791h

Resolution rules

If Betsy McCaughey wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Connecticut Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1236.8%
IY (No) 3.4%
Adj IY 618%
CRI 19
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1236.8%
IY (No)3.4%
Adj IY618%
CRI19
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:42:51 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXGOVCTNOMR-26-BMCC yes 100

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