Will Erin Stewart be the Republican nominee for Governor in Connecticut
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 89% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
89%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ryan Fazio be the Republican nominee for Governor in Connecticut
Will Ryan Fazio be the Republican nominee for Governor in Connecticut?: Ryan Fazio
KXGOVCTNOMR-26-RFAZ
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Erin Stewart wins the Republican primary for Connecticut's gubernatorial race. At 36%, the market suggests Stewart is a competitive but not dominant frontrunner among potential GOP candidates. The current level reflects factors including her name recognition as a former Hartford mayor and current state representative, her fundraising capacity, and the field of other potential Republican contenders. Primary results from other states and Stewart's polling performance relative to Democratic frontrunners could shift expectations. The Republican primary election itself will definitively resolve this contract, likely occurring in August 2026, with nomination voting potentially happening at a state convention or through direct primary ballot depending on Connecticut's party procedures.
- ›Stewart's current position as Connecticut state representative and prior mayoral tenure provide institutional advantages in state-level GOP networking and donor relationships
- ›The presence of competing Republican candidates with significant resources or name recognition would directly reduce her nomination probability if they enter the race
- ›Connecticut's Republican Party registration trends and overall electorate size affect how representative primary voters are of statewide general election viability
- ›Stewart's performance in early state party events, straw polls, or convention votes before August 2026 would provide empirical data shifting market estimates
- ›National Republican donor and establishment support patterns in 2026 cycle could concentrate resources toward specific gubernatorial candidates in swing-competitive states
What moved the line
- Jun 20Ryan Fazio↑3pp90→93¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (89% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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