Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.5M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illocked or held by few traders.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.5M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illocked or held by few traders. The 11¢ price implies a 2,546% annualized yield on a "Yes" resolution, an extraordinarily high return that likely reflects both McCaughey's low perceived viability as a primary candidate and the market's thin depth—the 8¢ spread is 73% of the current price. The 864% realized volatility and recent 2¢ decline from 13¢ over seven days, combined with a high cliff risk index of 8, indicate this contract is prone to sharp repricing on news or candidate announcements in the 116 days remaining.
Also on kalshi at 5¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x27635baefe8e6947a5fdbc4dbbcb88ebdae3ea935ad55792f78c0dd430248843 yes 100