Will Zach Lahn be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Zach Lahn be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of long-shot political nomination contracts, with zero 24-hour volume despite $11,462 open interest and a wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of long-shot political nomination contracts, with zero 24-hour volume despite $11,462 open interest and a wide 5¢ spread. The 1839% implied yield on the Yes side is mathematically inflated by the low 9¢ price and should be disregarded as a practical return metric given the binary nature and thin liquidity. The contract has declined from 11¢ to 9¢ over seven days with realized volatility exceeding 1100%, suggesting either genuine information arrival about Lahn's candidacy or typical noise in low-volume nomination markets with 201 days to expiration.
Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
If Zach Lahn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Iowa Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVIANOMR-26-ZLAH yes 100