Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$197K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
154 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Zach Lahn be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa
Will Zach Lahn be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?: Zach Lahn
KXGOVIANOMR-26-ZLAH
Cluster 2
Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa
Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa?: Randy Feenstra
KXGOVIANOMR-26-RFEE
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Randy Feenstra wins the Republican primary for Iowa governor before the general election. At 39%, the market indicates Feenstra is a significant contender but faces meaningful competition within the party. The current level likely reflects his standing in recent Iowa polling and organizational strength compared to other potential Republican candidates. Movement would depend on two main factors: changes in candidate field composition (if other candidates drop out or enter) and shifts in voter preference shown through public polling or primary results from similar states. The 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary will definitively resolve this market, making the actual primary election date the key catalyst for determining the outcome.
- ›Feenstra's current polling position relative to other declared or potential Republican candidates in Iowa
- ›Recent campaign finance and organizational activity indicating candidate viability in the state
- ›Whether the full Republican candidate field has formed or if additional candidates may enter before primary filing deadlines
- ›Historical turnout and vote patterns in Iowa Republican gubernatorial primaries
- ›Public endorsements and support from Iowa Republican party leadership or affiliated organizations
What moved the line
- Jun 1Zach Lahn↑8pp10→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Zach Lahn↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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