Will Mike Kennealy be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Mike Kennealy be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,888 open interest, and the 8¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk profile where a Yes resolution would yield 742% compared to just 5.6% for No.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,888 open interest, and the 8¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk profile where a Yes resolution would yield 742% compared to just 5.6% for No. The recent 1¢ price decline over seven days combined with a 12 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential volatility around nomination events, though the 566-day timeframe to expiry provides substantial runway for the market to develop liquidity and price discovery.
Also on polymarket at 10¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Mike Kennealy wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Massachusetts Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVMANOMR-26-MKEN yes 100