Will Brian Shortsleeve be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Michael Minogue be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts
Will Michael Minogue be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts?: Michael Minogue
KXGOVMANOMR-26-MMIN
Cluster 2
Will Brian Shortsleeve be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts
Will Brian Shortsleeve be the Republican nominee for Governor in Massachusetts?: Brian Shortsleeve
KXGOVMANOMR-26-BSHO
Analysis
This probability reflects the current odds that Brian Shortsleeve will secure the Republican nomination for Massachusetts Governor. The 47% level suggests a competitive but uncertain race. Massachusetts Republicans will determine their nominee through a convention process and primary system, with multiple candidates likely competing for support. The outcome depends on several dynamics: Shortsleeve's ability to consolidate grassroots support and fundraising, the positions and viability of competing candidates, and broader Massachusetts Republican Party sentiment. Key upcoming events include any formal candidate announcements, convention delegate selection processes, and primary election dates scheduled in 2026. Shortsleeve's performance in party forums, endorsements from influential state Republicans, and demonstrated campaign infrastructure will be measurable indicators of nomination probability. Market pricing at 47% reflects genuine uncertainty about the nomination outcome.
- ›Massachusetts Republican Party convention and primary schedule and results determine the nomination path; timeline and delegate rules are concrete data points
- ›Number and strength of competing Republican candidates in the race; candidate entries or exits directly affect Shortsleeve's path to nomination
- ›Shortsleeve's demonstrated fundraising totals and campaign organization relative to opponents; financial and organizational metrics are publicly observable
- ›Key endorsements from Massachusetts Republican leadership and elected officials; endorsement announcements create measurable shifts in candidate viability
- ›Shortsleeve's polling performance in any published surveys among likely Republican primary voters or convention attendees
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (47% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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