Will Helena Foulkes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will Helena Foulkes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,140.74 open interest, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,140.74 open interest, making the 79¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The massive 545.8% implied yield on the "No" side is a red flag indicating severe mispricing—such extreme asymmetry typically signals either very low conviction from traders or structural illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With over 200 days to expiration and a modest 6¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative niche market where the high headline probability should be heavily discounted due to the lack of meaningful price discovery.
Also on polymarket at 77¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If Helena Foulkes wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Rhode Island Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVRINOMD-26-HFOU yes 100