Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?

The market is pricing Foulkes as a heavy favorite at 74¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $12k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could mask pricing inefficiencies. The extreme 721.7% implied yield on the "No" side is a red flag indicating the market may be overconfident in Foulkes' nomination prospects, especially given the neutral regime score and lack of recent trading activity to validate the current price. With 144 days until resolution and a tight 3¢ spread, this appears to be a relatively stale market where the consensus view may not reflect emerging primary dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade