Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $2,096 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a modest $2,096 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 888.5% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and suggests either severe mispricing or that traders view Barlow as a significant long-shot candidate with minimal market attention. With 201 days until the November 2026 nomination deadline and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a niche market lacking sufficient trading activity to establish a credible consensus probability.
Also on polymarket at 17¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
If Eric Barlow wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Wyoming Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVWYNOMR-26-EBAR yes 100