Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. Eric Barlow is priced at a 16% probability despite extremely thin liquidity—just $6 in 24-hour volume against $10.5M open interest—suggesting this market may lack sufficient price discovery and could be vulnerable to manipulation or sudden repricing.
Analysis
Eric Barlow is priced at a 16% probability despite extremely thin liquidity—just $6 in 24-hour volume against $10.5M open interest—suggesting this market may lack sufficient price discovery and could be vulnerable to manipulation or sudden repricing. The astronomical 1558% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 501% realized volatility indicates extreme uncertainty and likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction. With 123 days to expiration and a modest 2-cent price rise over the past week, this appears to be a speculative long-shot position with high cliff risk (5/10) that warrants caution given the illiquidity-to-open-interest ratio.
Also on kalshi at 17¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xfb481845055afdf15febad269fcb534be4c5e79d5789b72659a036660b46e11b yes 100