Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 445.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus 44.5% on the No side, reflecting the low 25¢ price and high barrier (requiring 2026 to exceed both 2025's temperature and a 1.28°C threshold).
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 445.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus 44.5% on the No side, reflecting the low 25¢ price and high barrier (requiring 2026 to exceed both 2025's temperature and a 1.28°C threshold). Liquidity is severely constrained at just $1,832.80 open interest with a 6¢ spread, creating execution risk for meaningful positions despite 259 days to expiry. The recent 3¢ price rise over seven days and neutral regime score suggest modest conviction, though the resolution criteria's dual conditions (year-over-year increase plus absolute threshold) make this a relatively conservative bet on record heat.
Resolution rules
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGTEMP-27-P0 yes 100