Apr 2026 temperature increase?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Apr 2026 temperature increase?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $769 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $769 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread. The astronomical 3757.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects the binary nature of the narrow 1.10-1.16°C resolution band, which historically occurs in roughly 5-15% of months based on recent climate data. With just 29 days to expiry and a recent 6¢ price decline (19¢ to 25¢ over 7 days), this appears to be a low-conviction market where any new climate data or model updates could trigger significant repricing.
Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ +17¢)
Resolution rules
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Apr 2026 is between 1.10-1.16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHMONTHRANGE-26APR-B1.130 yes 100