Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.325M?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.325M?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility with prices surging 42 cents over seven days (from 20¢ to 62¢), though current 24-hour volume of just $729 suggests thin liquidity that may amplify moves.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility with prices surging 42 cents over seven days (from 20¢ to 62¢), though current 24-hour volume of just $729 suggests thin liquidity that may amplify moves. The 53¢ price implies a modest 53% probability for above 1.325M starts, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (2251% for Yes, 5992% for No) and realized volatility of 138,593% indicate severe mispricing or data quality issues rather than genuine market conviction. With only 10 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, traders should be cautious of sharp repricing once March housing data approaches release, especially given the low open interest of $10,173.
Resolution rules
If US housing starts value for March 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is above 1.325M units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSINGSTART-26APR17-T1.325 yes 100