Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.450M

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing an 92% probability that U.S. housing starts in June 2026 will exceed 1.125 million annualized units, with a 82% probability they will reach 1.200 million. This reflects trader expectations that residential construction will remain robust through mid-2026. The current pricing suggests confidence in sustained housing demand, though the declining probabilities at higher thresholds (66% at 1.250M) indicate uncertainty about whether starts will accelerate further. Housing starts data typically reflects mortgage rates, building permit issuance, labor availability, and materials costs. The June 2026 housing starts figure will be released by the Census Bureau in early July 2026, resolving this contract. Traders appear to be pricing in a range between 1.125M–1.250M as most likely, suggesting neither a sharp contraction nor a dramatic boom in residential construction.

• ›May 2026 housing starts and building permit levels will directly signal momentum heading into the June release
• ›Mortgage rate movements between now and June 2026 will influence builder confidence and consumer demand for new units
• ›Labor shortages and material cost inflation remain quantifiable constraints on construction capacity and speed
• ›The 30-year fixed mortgage rate relative to historical averages will indicate affordability pressure on new construction demand
• ›Census Bureau housing starts release in early July 2026 will provide the definitive actual figure to resolve the contract

What moved the line

• Aug 18Above 1.480M↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Above 1.460M↓5pp9→4¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Above 1.360M↓4pp50→46¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Above 1.440M↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Above 1.460M↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds