Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.400M?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.400M?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes price collapsing from 3¢ to 11¢ over seven days—a reversal that suggests either data release disappointment or technical repositioning ahead of the April 29 close.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes price collapsing from 3¢ to 11¢ over seven days—a reversal that suggests either data release disappointment or technical repositioning ahead of the April 29 close. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on Yes combined with minimal $68 daily volume and wide 8¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, making the 11% probability unreliable for forecasting actual housing starts outcomes. With only 11 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 32, this contract is vulnerable to sharp moves on any March housing data release, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.4/h) suggest the market may be overweighting tail risk given the extreme volatility metrics.
Resolution rules
If US housing starts value for March 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is above 1.400M units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSINGSTART-26APR17-T1.400 yes 100