Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.450M?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.450M?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market is experiencing extreme illiquidity with only $13.05 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market is experiencing extreme illiquidity with only $13.05 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side. With just one day until expiry on 4/17/2026 and the actual March housing starts data likely already released or imminent, the market faces severe cliff risk (index of 7) and the 9¢ spread represents 64% of the current price. The 7-day price movement from 5¢ to 12¢ suggests recent information arrival, but the microscopic liquidity means this contract should be treated as a curiosity rather than a meaningful probability signal.
Resolution rules
If US housing starts value for March 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is above 1.450M units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSINGSTART-26APR17-T1.450 yes 100