Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.475M?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will US housing starts for March 2026 be above 1.475M?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 5, 2026. This market has effectively expired with zero days to close on 4/17/2026, yet the 10¢ price reflects only a 10% probability despite the March housing starts data likely already being released or imminent.
Analysis
This market has effectively expired with zero days to close on 4/17/2026, yet the 10¢ price reflects only a 10% probability despite the March housing starts data likely already being released or imminent. The extreme risk-adjusted yield of 74,667% and realized volatility of 4,509% suggest severe mispricing or a data lag issue, compounded by minimal liquidity ($3 daily volume, $590 open interest) and a wide 7¢ spread that makes execution difficult. The price doubled from 4¢ to 10¢ over seven days while the market approached expiry, indicating either late information arrival or positioning ahead of resolution, though the low info arrival rate of 0.3/h and cliff risk index of 9 suggest this contract is experiencing end-of-life dysfunction rather than genuine market discovery.
Resolution rules
If US housing starts value for March 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is above 1.475M units, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOUSINGSTART-26APR17-T1.475 yes 100