Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing a 73% probability of exceeding 2 major hurricanes in 2026, but the extremely wide 14¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity despite $339.93 open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 73% probability of exceeding 2 major hurricanes in 2026, but the extremely wide 14¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity despite $339.93 open interest. The No side offers a striking 249% annualized yield compared to just 101.8% for Yes, indicating strong disagreement between the pricing and market participants' risk appetite—this inverted yield structure is unusual and suggests either the Yes price is overvalued or the market lacks sufficient depth to efficiently price tail risk. With 229 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 486%, this remains a highly speculative contract where actual hurricane season data (typically peaking August-October 2026) will likely drive significant repricing.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 2 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T2 yes 100