Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will there be more than 3 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market is pricing in a 65% probability of exceeding 3 major hurricanes in 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($627.81 open interest, $0 in 24h volume) and wide 13¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 65% probability of exceeding 3 major hurricanes in 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($627.81 open interest, $0 in 24h volume) and wide 13¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect true consensus. The 203% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated given the neutral regime and 229 days to expiration, indicating either strong conviction among remaining holders or illiquidity-driven mispricing. The 7-day rally from 38¢ to 45¢ (18% move) combined with 160% realized volatility signals recent information arrival, though the 0.6/h info rate suggests this volatility may be noise rather than fundamental shifts in hurricane forecasting.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 3 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T3 yes 100