What is the current probability for "Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 25, 2026. 4 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 14228.2% and 6323.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Winner?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026. The LSG contract has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 9 percentage points over seven days (from 3¢ to 34¢), suggesting either new information about team composition or betting pattern shifts ahead of the April 25 resolution.

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41¢

Bid/Ask 40/41¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $14,899.08·OI $17,653.02·Closes Apr 25, 2026·4d remaining

KXIPLGAME-26APR22RRLSG-LSG

7-day price296 snapshots · 41 regime

40¢40¢ current

Apr 153¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The LSG contract has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 9 percentage points over seven days (from 3¢ to 34¢), suggesting either new information about team composition or betting pattern shifts ahead of the April 25 resolution. The 8713% implied yield on Yes combined with minimal $192 daily volume and a 7¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, typical of niche sports markets with thin order books. With only 9 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.4 events per hour, this contract faces elevated cliff risk despite the neutral regime score, making it sensitive to late-breaking injury reports or lineup announcements.

Resolution rules

If Lucknow Super Giants wins the Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals professional men's IPL Cricket match originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14228.2%

IY (No) 6323.6%

Adj IY 11930%

CRI 2

RV 338%

VR 0.26

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	14228.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6323.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11930%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	338%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.26	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 5:46:00 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPLGAME-26APR22RRLSG-LSG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →