What is the current probability for "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 29¢ (29% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 724.9% and 22.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will AppsFlyer IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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29¢

Bid/Ask 15/24¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $2·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27FEB01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 29¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 712.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high but reflects the thin market structure rather than genuine opportunity, as evidenced by the 9¢ spread and minimal trading activity. With 290 days to expiry and a moderate 6 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative micro-market lacking sufficient depth for meaningful analysis.

Resolution rules

If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 724.9%

IY (No) 22.6%

Adj IY 362%

CRI 6

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	724.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	362%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:18:39 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →